Group Four: The Ultraprocessed Risk
According to Monteiro’s classification, Group 4 includes ultraprocessed foods—items made mostly from low-cost, chemically modified ingredients with minimal to no whole food content. These products often rely on artificial additives to enhance flavor, texture, and shelf life, making them highly palatable and potentially addictive.
“There’s no solid evidence that humans are capable of fully adapting to these industrially engineered foods,” Monteiro wrote in a 2024 editorial in The BMJ. “The body may perceive them as harmful or useless, potentially leading to damage or dysfunction, depending on individual susceptibility and how much is consumed.”
However, critics argue that such warnings could backfire. Sarah Gallo, senior VP of product policy at the Consumer Brands Association, said the study may mislead the public. “Vilifying convenient, affordable packaged foods may discourage consumption of nutrient-rich options, reduce diet quality, increase foodborne illness risks, and worsen health inequalities,” she stated.
Even Small Amounts May Pose a Risk
This isn’t the first study to draw links between ultraprocessed food consumption and health issues. A February 2024 analysis found a 50% higher risk of dying from cardiovascular disease and greater odds of developing mental health disorders among those with high intake. Other possible consequences include a 53% increased risk of anxiety, 55% greater likelihood of obesity, 41% rise in sleep disorders, 40% higher risk of type 2 diabetes, and a 20% boost in chances of depression or premature death. Even increasing consumption by one serving a day (or 10%) showed significant effects.
A separate May 2024 study revealed that adding just 10% more ultraprocessed food to a healthy diet could elevate the risk of stroke and cognitive decline. Earlier research in 2023 linked similar increases to cancers of the upper digestive tract.
In the U.S., where ultraprocessed foods make up around 70% of the food supply, the effects are especially concerning. Tufts University nutrition expert Fang Fang Zhang told CNN that roughly two-thirds of children’s calories and about 60% of adults’ come from these types of foods.
Global Implications and Limitations
The most recent study, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, attempted to estimate how many deaths could be prevented in eight countries with varying levels of ultraprocessed food consumption. Lead researcher Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson noted that the potential reduction in premature deaths ranged from 4% in low-consumption nations to nearly 14% in those with the highest intake.
Still, some experts caution against overinterpretation. “The study doesn’t confirm that ultraprocessed foods directly cause death,” said Nerys Astbury of the University of Oxford. “The methodology simply isn’t designed to establish causality.”
According to the findings, eliminating ultraprocessed foods entirely could have prevented over 124,000 U.S. deaths in 2017. In contrast, lower-consumption countries like Colombia and Brazil might have avoided 3,000 and 25,000 deaths, respectively.
Yet total elimination is far from realistic. “Setting the minimal risk level at zero assumes a world without any ultraprocessed foods,” Zhang noted. “That’s highly unlikely in today’s society and may lead to an overestimation of their negative impact.”
Stephen Burgess, a biostatistician at Cambridge, echoed this caution. “These findings don’t prove that ultraprocessed foods are the direct cause. It’s possible that related factors, like physical fitness, play a more significant role. Still, the consistency of results across countries makes it hard to dismiss the link.”
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