The projected outcome signaled a dramatic shift for a party that had been headed for a major defeat just months earlier, concluding a campaign that was disrupted by Trump.
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured a victory in Monday’s federal election, according to projections by CBC, Canada’s public broadcaster — a stunning comeback partly driven by President Donald Trump’s tariff actions and verbal attacks on Canada.
Just a few months earlier, Carney’s Liberals were bracing for what could have been a historic defeat. As ballots continued to be counted, it remained uncertain whether the Liberals would form a minority or majority government. This win marks the fourth consecutive Liberal government since 2015.
Amid Trump's escalating trade war and threats to annex Canada, voters rallied around Carney — a political newcomer who previously served as the head of the Bank of Canada during the global financial crisis and later the Bank of England through Brexit. He campaigned as a stabilizing force in a turbulent period.
The election, seen by many Canadians as the most critical of their lifetimes, was framed by Trump’s provocations. Early in the campaign, Trump imposed tariffs on foreign-made cars, prompting Canadian retaliation. On election day, he posted on social media wishing Canadians "good luck" while reiterating his threat to make Canada the 51st U.S. state.
The result marks a dramatic turnaround for the Liberals, who were widely written off after Justin Trudeau resigned as prime minister in January. The party had trailed the Conservatives for more than a year, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seemed poised for a historic majority win.
However, Trudeau’s departure, Carney’s rise, and Trump’s reemergence shifted the political landscape. By the time Carney called a snap election in March, the Conservatives' commanding lead had vanished. Poilievre, whose momentum was built on criticizing Trudeau’s leadership, faltered once his main rival exited the stage — while a wave of Canadian patriotism, fueled by Trump’s antagonism, swept the country.
Political analysts described the shift in voter sentiment as monumental.
“To call it unprecedented would be an understatement,” said Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University. “It doesn’t fully capture the scale of the change.”
The election outcome could spark internal turmoil within the Conservative Party, which has now lost four elections in a row. Long-standing challenges — uniting party factions and broadening its voter base — remain unresolved. Even before election day, criticism from prominent Conservatives about Poilievre’s leadership had begun to spill into public view.
Canada, which relies on the United States for nearly 80 percent of its exports, has frequently been targeted by Trump’s tariffs. Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada warned that an extended global trade war could push the country into a recession. Already, tariffs and growing trade uncertainty are dampening business and consumer confidence. The Canadian economy has been stagnating for some time, with rising grocery prices squeezing household budgets and homeownership becoming increasingly unattainable for many young people. Regional tensions, especially over natural resource development, also pose challenges to strengthening national resilience amid Trump’s escalating threats.
According to analysts, the election centered around two intertwined questions: Who could most effectively stand up to Trump and manage deteriorating U.S.-Canada relations, and who could bring meaningful change? Policy specifics took a back seat, with voters instead drawn to the differing leadership styles of the main candidates.
Carney, 60, a former Goldman Sachs executive and central banker, has been prime minister for less than two months. He positioned himself as the steady leader Canada needs to navigate Trump-era instability. Though his initial steps into electoral politics included some missteps, voters appeared more concerned about Trump’s provocations and saw Carney’s calm competence as a counterbalance to the U.S. president’s unpredictability.
“I’ve handled crises before,” Carney said at a campaign rally over the weekend. “Now is the time for experience, not experimentation.”
Carney has pledged to seek a redefined trade and security arrangement with the United States. He supports selective retaliatory tariffs and has committed to meeting NATO defense spending targets by 2030. While some sectors will remain closely linked with the U.S., he has vowed to expand Canada’s trade ties with more dependable partners.
“Our old relationship with the United States — one rooted in deep economic integration and close military cooperation — is finished,” Carney said last month.
To voters eager for a new direction, he offered a break from the Trudeau era. On his first day in office, Carney began distancing his government from his predecessor by scrapping Trudeau’s contentious consumer carbon tax.
Pierre Poilievre, 45, a seasoned politician known for his combative style, had spent years attacking Trudeau’s economic policies, especially targeting the carbon tax as a factor in rising living costs. However, after Trudeau’s resignation and the end of the carbon levy, Poilievre struggled to shift his campaign narrative away from his familiar “ax the tax” slogan. The race had become less about Trudeau and more about the future under new leadership.
During a leaders’ debate earlier this month, Carney quipped, “I know you want to be running against Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau isn’t here,” highlighting Poilievre’s challenge in adapting his message.
Poilievre tried to paint Carney as a privileged insider cut from the same cloth as Trudeau, claiming that a Liberal government under Carney would continue many of his predecessor’s policies. He campaigned on cutting taxes and bureaucracy, cracking down on crime, and expanding pipeline development.
“We can’t afford a fourth Liberal term,” Poilievre told supporters at a rally last weekend. “It’s time for change.”
Yet, Poilievre appeared unprepared for Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, in part because segments of his own base sympathized with the former U.S. president. While some Conservatives urged him to respond more directly to Trump, Poilievre continued to focus mainly on affordability, blaming a "lost Liberal decade" for Canada's current vulnerabilities.
Analysts noted that his tendency for slogans and mocking nicknames hurt him during a time of national uncertainty, making him seem flippant. His pledges to cut foreign aid and shrink the public sector, remove “woke culture” from the military, and eliminate funding for “woke” academic research struck many voters as echoing Trump’s style — a liability rather than an asset.
In the final days of the campaign, the Conservatives released ads that excluded Poilievre entirely — a move analysts interpreted as a sign that his confrontational tone was alienating swing voters. Many center-left voters who might have supported the New Democratic Party or Bloc Québécois instead rallied behind the Liberals to block a Conservative victory.
In Canada’s electoral system, citizens don’t vote directly for the prime minister. Instead, they elect representatives in 343 districts, or ridings, to serve in the House of Commons.
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